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 Survivor: Gabon -- Episode 9

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Peanutbutter

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PostSubject: Survivor: Gabon -- Episode 9   Fri Nov 14, 2008 2:22 am

Anyone here other than me watch this show?

The last few weeks have been extremely good in terms of shaking up the game from a beat down of one team to a complete toppling of the power group. I'm personally rooting for Ken because he's the freaking Smash King, but his game has also stepped up quite a few notches lately.

Next episode, I predict Randy is gone in order to preserve loyalty from Sugar, plus he's just asking for it. He could win immunity (likely for a physical challenge), which would most likely get Corrine kicked off. A possible upset would be Randy pulling away Matty and then either Sugar (unlikely because she hates him) or Crystal (to try and show some game over Ken) and removing Ken (note: I doubt Suzie would switch because then she will have zero jury credibility, and she feels Ken can take her to the final three, not Randy). Randy has shown some respect for Ken lately, and I think Randy knows Ken needs to go soon or he'll win (Randy has shown blind hate lately and may just beeline Crystal, which will be a very poor strategy for the end game).

Here are my power rankings for the rest of the season, which I feel represents an ordered list of who would win if the vote were right now:
  1. Ken : Ken has masterminded the removal of Ace by tricking Sugar, and Charlie by tricking his whole group (including, again, Sugar, although I'm pretty sure she just didn't want to vote with Randy), although in all fairness removing Charlie keeps targets on the backs of rude people like Randy and Corrine. He's got the game right now and is likely to win although I think he is starting to show a fat head which will knock him down this list in a hurry if he rears it publicly.
  2. Crystal : Straight up, she can't beat Ken, but since they are an extremely tight group, if she brings him near the end and then uses a swing vote to take him out, she has a legitimate shot to claim some of Ken's accomplishments since she helped in all of them. She saved Ken (after he saved her) by convincing Susie to take down Marcus, the strongest player in the game.
  3. Sugar : Extremely weak in the challenges and constantly not viewed as a threat or even someone to watch for later. Her possession of the idol is known to the currently-stronger team, which will end up hurting her later. She would be ranked higher except that she clearly doesn't have any lasting thoughts and is easily connived. Ace strung her along, then Ken, and now Matty is doing it (although he's likely more genuine, he's still using her for vote protection). Her power lies in her idol and her constant status as a swing vote, and she could parlay that into end-game votes as she is likely to make the final 5 if not final 3.
  4. Matty : Physically strong, but hasn't shown dominance in the way that other survivors have (Ozzy). He won't beat Kenny/Crystal for votes at the end, but he could bind up with Corrine and Randy now and try to grab a vote (Crystal?) to drop Kenny and retake some control. He has the "honest nice guy" thing going for him and while it makes people like you, it usually leads to second-place-at-best finishes.
  5. Bob : A workhorse puppet. This guy has zero game (mediocre physically) and is an easy vote out when nobody is sure who to pick. His power lies in the fact that Corrine and Randy have huge targets on their backs for being so nasty, and if players start to shift their positions, Bob could end up sitting in the final four or five and a good challenge performance would take him to the end. It is hard for me to imagine him winning votes against anybody except maybe Sugar or the others in this list, but he would probably get all of the Kota votes if he survived to the end, and it would only take one other vote to win.
  6. Suzie : A workhorse puppet like Bob, but she actually has some power in the game because of her recent Swing vote status. If she has thought about a likely series of events at all, she will be another swing vote in the final five against Ken/Crystal v Sugar/Matty, and could put herself in the final three easily. Despite the fact that she is almost guaranteed top five if not top three, it is very hard to imagine her winning against anybody in this list, which is why she's ranked so far down. Everyone else can claim a better game. Her only shot is to claim her swing vote status gave her control over which paths the game took and if she has a strong challenge showing like she did this week, she could pull off the upset.
  7. Randy : If he can somehow make it to the end, I think Randy is a lock to win. People really dislike him but his game has been outstanding. He basically got screwed over by the twist (you could argue he overreached by acting like a dick to his old tribe when he flipped, and thus owns part of his current position). Randy had a very bad hand and threw it back for a really good one. With Marcus gone, Randy has a very good shot at being the mastermind of the end of the game but it will take either a set of miracles in which he wins immunity several times or other players moving early to cut the likely winners off. He will need to draw back Matty (shows some strategy there in the preview) this next week to vote out the power players, but I have a hard time seeing Sugar go along with Matty because Sugar hates Randy. All-in-all, Randy could win, but too many people dislike him to keep him around.
  8. Corrine : Not that bad physically, but she's basically just a bitch like Randy but without his scheming power. She goes with her heart in her voting (how she tried to swap votes to Suzie a couple episodes ago) and clearly was following Marcus's lead. She can follow Randy and if they pull away Matty and someone else, possibly go for the upset win down the stretch, but if she goes to the end, it's very hard to imagine such a scenario without Randy and/or Bob, both of whom I think have her beat. Corrine is likely to go soon, but if something happens to keep her alive, I highly doubt she'll be able to lay claim to it. Extremely unlikely to win in any circumstance.
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Almagest

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PostSubject: Re: Survivor: Gabon -- Episode 9   Fri Nov 14, 2008 6:11 pm

Hey, did you watch VH1's "I Love Money" when it was on? It was kind of like Survivor, only with the bat-shit-craziness of the contestants turned way up high; something I found entertaining.
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Galt

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PostSubject: Re: Survivor: Gabon -- Episode 9   Fri Nov 14, 2008 6:23 pm

Sorry, I don't catch survivor. Right now I dvr:

True Blood
Dexter
Californication (but losing interest)
Heroes
House
Fringe
Real Time: Bill Maher
Kitchen Knightmares


You happen to watch big brother? My wife watches it and I usually start about half way through the season when there aren't so many people. Its decent as far as reality shows go in my book.
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Ichaerus
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PostSubject: Re: Survivor: Gabon -- Episode 9   Fri Nov 14, 2008 6:42 pm

Friends don't let friends do theorycraft for reality television.

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Malaese

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PostSubject: Re: Survivor: Gabon -- Episode 9   Sat Nov 15, 2008 3:37 am

Galt wrote:
Sorry, I don't catch survivor. Right now I dvr:

True Blood
Dexter
Californication (but losing interest)
Heroes
House
Fringe
Real Time: Bill Maher
Kitchen Knightmares


You happen to watch big brother? My wife watches it and I usually start about half way through the season when there aren't so many people. Its decent as far as reality shows go in my book.

No Entourage?
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Peanutbutter

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PostSubject: Re: Survivor: Gabon -- Episode 9   Sat Nov 15, 2008 9:40 am

Almagest wrote:
Hey, did you watch VH1's "I Love Money" when it was on? It was kind of like Survivor, only with the bat-shit-craziness of the contestants turned way up high; something I found entertaining.
No, I didn't have cable TV until about 6 months ago. I heard amusing stuff about that show, though!

Quote :
True Blood
Dexter
Californication (but losing interest)
Heroes
House
Fringe
Real Time: Bill Maher
Kitchen Knightmares
Similar to our line up, well Jelly's. Here's her stuff, with the bold ones being shows I watch, too:

Heroes
Bones -- I love this show but I have missed a lot so I watch it infrequently
House -- I love this show but I have missed a lot so I watch it infrequently
Fringe
Survivor
CSI -- I'll watch every once in a great while
Smallville
Numb3rs -- I'll watch every once in a while
Desperate Housewives
Brothers and Sisters -- I can't even be in the same room when this show is on, it's so terrible

I usually catch part of Countdown and Rachel Maddow, and of course, I try to watch all the football games I can (one Sunday morning game, one Sunday afternoon game, the Sunday evening game, the Monday night game).
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Galt

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PostSubject: Re: Survivor: Gabon -- Episode 9   Sat Nov 15, 2008 10:37 am

Malaese wrote:
No Entourage?

I watched the first two seasons and watched the first few episodes of this one but I barely have time to watch the other shows so after one episode fell off the list after not being watched I stopped the season pass. I like the show it just doesn't hold my attention over time.


Also, like pb, I like to watch the msnbc evening shows in passing but oddly I find myself watching fox news more (they are on consecutive channels so I flip) because its more entertaining. Especially leading up to the election, I got a pretty big kick out of the things they play on there. BillO and Hannity are about as entertaining as it gets when it comes to "news" shows.
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Damacus

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PostSubject: Re: Survivor: Gabon -- Episode 9   Sat Nov 15, 2008 11:21 am

robot chicken and frisky dingo ftw
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Malaese

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PostSubject: Re: Survivor: Gabon -- Episode 9   Mon Nov 24, 2008 12:44 pm

Ah True Blood is finally over. That show is enticingly terrible. The books are worth a free download though if you like pulp detective novels with Vamps and Were's thrown in. Also, best show on TV right now...NCIS.
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Almagest

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PostSubject: Re: Survivor: Gabon -- Episode 9   Mon Nov 24, 2008 10:38 pm

Speaking of True Blood, I was pretty into it, up until the end of the second to last episode when dude walks into Jason's house and strangles his girlfriend without waking her up. I know they were on "drugs," but seriously, I think the wholly unbelievability of that scene kind of ruined the show for me.

Can someone explain how someone can take off their belt and press it down on someone's neck, which is currently resting on what I can only imagine to be a very soft mattress, make all sorts of red marks on that neck, and choke the life out of that person, all without that person waking up?
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PostSubject: Re: Survivor: Gabon -- Episode 9   Tue Nov 25, 2008 12:18 am

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Galt

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PostSubject: Re: Survivor: Gabon -- Episode 9   Tue Nov 25, 2008 6:01 pm

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PostSubject: Re: Survivor: Gabon -- Episode 9   Wed Nov 26, 2008 3:38 pm

Galt wrote:

Gottah put a little boom box on his back.
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