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 Bradley Effect

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Xeos
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PostSubject: Bradley Effect   Thu Oct 02, 2008 11:24 am

Who thinks the Bradley Effect will occur in this presidential election?
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Galt

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PostSubject: Re: Bradley Effect   Thu Oct 02, 2008 11:32 am

For the country's sake I hope people don't pan out to be that stupid/ignorant. If you like McCain because you like McCain thats one thing but if you vote against Obama just because he is black you're stupid/ignorant.
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PostSubject: Re: Bradley Effect   Thu Oct 02, 2008 11:33 am

I suggest you read Nate Silver's interpretation.

Reader's Digest: There's no empirical evidence to suggest the Bradley Effect applies anymore. Harold Ford Jr. (Black) barely lost a close Senate re-election bid in 2006 and his final performance mirrored the polls. Obama out-performed in the primaries the poll averages. Obama already beat a very popular candidate, Clinton, in the primaries.

It won't happen. If anything, Obama will win by a larger margin than predicted due to terrible undersampling of new and youth voters, who will be out in record numbers.
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